The dream of living in Canada may be postponed for a longer period than previously expected

So how strong could be an impact from the COVID-19 reduction of immigration on Canada’s economy?

According to the recent report by RBC Economics, we’ll hardly see a near-term rebound of immigration, as the slowdown may last for many months ahead.

RBC believes that even in case of the most optimistic scenario, only 70% of the 341,000 new permanent residents Canada is focusing on in 2020, will receive permanent residency.

“Such a decline could derail a main source of economic growth for Canada in recent years,”- noted RBC senior economist Andrew Agopsowicz.

Here are some of the facts about the second quarter:

• Permanent-resident arrivals were down by 67% to 34,000 from 94,000 on a year-over-year basis
• Temporary work fell by 50%
• Only about 10,000 new study permits were given, while it was 107,000 in 2019
• Although June showed certain improvement, still permanent immigration fell by 44% annually

Poor results during the lockdown are not surprising, as travel restrictions, health concerns and economic uncertainty kept newcomers out of Canada.

Canada’s real estate market, which is one of the few optimistic segments during the COVID-19 recession, is particularly vulnerable now.

Another report by Capital Economics says that immigration created demand for 92,000 properties, which accounts for almost 44% of housing starts.

Capital economist Stephen Brown believes that as the number of homes under construction is almost record high, even if immigration goes down by half, the ratio of units to population growth would still significantly exceed any given result during the previous 30 years.

Meanwhile, the rental market, which depends strongly on newcomers, already reports rental listings in Toronto growing by 100% over the recent months.

While online research in native countries may soften the hit, RBC says in case the results remain low, colleges, universities and the cities they are located in will face an extremely challenging year.

“As the influence on all types of immigration will result in financial losses, the damage from the failure of students to arrive is especially strong, and it can’t be easily offset over years to come. It could be a really lost year”, – Agopsowicz added.

According to RBC, the best way for Canada to keep immigration growing is motivating temporary residents who are already in the country.