Despite January slowdown, Toronto Real Estate Board predicts strong home sales growth in 2025

2025

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) is forecasting sales to grow 12.4 per cent in 2025. That means 76,000 properties will change hands across the region as lower mortgage rates increase affordability.

TRREB expects the average sale price to reach $1,147,000, up 2.6 per cent from last year. Single-family homes are expected to see sharper gains.

“More homebuyers will take advantage of lower mortgage rates as we head into the spring 2025 market, leading to more transactions and modest average prices in 2025,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer in a news release.

“However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates may be offset, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of the trade wars on the economy and consumer confidence.”

The report cited Ipsos data showing that 28 percent of survey respondents said they were likely to buy a home in 2025, while 37 percent said they were likely to sell a home. Both results were consistent with the 2024 survey.

First-time buyers made up 42 percent of potential homeowners.

Davell Morrison, a broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., noted that competition is already heating up, especially at the “low end of the market” of homes priced around $1 million.

“Above that, things are a little slower, but there’s still interest,” Morrison said.

“We do tell people now is a good time to buy, partly because of some of the uncertainty, but also because of the low rates.”

Morrison said the threat of U.S. tariffs clouding Canada’s economic outlook and the potential impact on the property market has left some clients hesitant to make an offer.

“If everyone else is scared and worried, you better act now because you’re going to get a much better price,” she said.

“If you wait until everything is wonderful and rosy, then you’re going to be competing with everyone else who was too scared to act right now, and prices are going to get higher and higher.”

TRREB also reported that there were 3,847 sales transactions in January, down 7.9 per cent from the first month last year.

The average sale price, however, was $1,040,994, up 1.5 per cent from January 2024.