4 December 2018

In his opinion, the oil production cut will decrease real GDP in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019. However, it’s not the only problem we may face.

“Wage inflation is becoming weaker, and GDP growth has been at zero level during most of the previous two months. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve doesn’t sound so confident anymore that rates will keep rising with the same pace”, – he noted.

At this meeting, the Bank will not provide an updated outlook, but Shenfeld believes we may hear some mention of the downside risks to previous GDP forecasts.

CIBC Economics still expects a two-steps rate increase by 0.5% next year.