30 May 2019

Although Dunning didn’t intentionally investigate the B-20 influence, according to his estimation, it accounts for half of the drop.

The report expects investment in the condo sector to go down by the end of 2019 and this trend will be quite significant by 2021. Today’s condo construction cycle is the result of presales that were made before the B-20’s introduction at the beginning of 2018.

In addition to it, renovation construction may also be under attack, and together with all residential construction, it could lead to $20-25 billion in lost investment and about 200,000 jobs decline.

“The influence on the job market we’ve already seen is only one-tenth of the total impact,” – noted Dunning. “The economy has just started to adjust, and it will take more time”.

It should be noted that this report appears at quite an interesting time. Almost all sectors of the housing industry have been pushing the government to change or even eliminate B-20. Mortgage Professionals Canada called for a 0.75% stress test instead of 2%, but the government didn’t react. Meanwhile, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation asked the government to keep the course despite all the demands.