11 March 2019

There are no such pessimistic forecasts concerning Canada, but we already hit certain records, meaning it could be not just a short-term adjustment to the new rules.

For instance, we’ve seen fewer mortgages in Canada than a year ago for the first time at all. According to the Canadian Bankers Association, there were 4.756 million mortgages reported at Canada’s 10 largest banks at the end of October, 2018. It’s 0.3% lower than a year earlier.

In other words, old mortgages end faster than new borrowers appear. It’s important to understand that those mortgages were registered decades ago, when Canada’s population was smaller.

In addition to it, home construction went down by 13.6% last month to an annual pace of 173,000, says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. It’s the lowest number in more than three years.

Meanwhile, Canada’s population growth is the fastest among the G7, and the fastest in the history of Canada since the 1980s. The population of the GTA grows by about 100,000 people annually, pushing rents and condo prices higher even amid the worst affordability in decades.

Experts say it’s almost impossible to predict the outcome of policies encouraging faster population growth and policies stimulating slower house price growth.