18 January 2019

The ADP Report is based on the actual ADP payroll data. It tracks the change in overall nonfarm payroll employment every month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

However, according to Statistics Canada, Canada’s annual inflation rate was up last month, matching the central bank’s 2% target. At the same time, stable prices pressure prevents Canada from interest rate hikes in the nearest future, as oil prices decline affect the economy negatively.

Economists believe the influence of a 22% percent increase in airfares is only temporary and the Bank of Canada will pay particular attention to its three measures of core inflation. They remained stable and below the BoC’s target.

“There are no reasons for the Bank to hurry with rate hikes”, – said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. “We’ve been expecting two more increases later this year: in July and December.”

It’s important to remember that Canada is a main exporter of oil, which has fallen in price by 45% since October.

The national economy is digging its way out of economic slowdown, which will postpone the next interest rate hike until at least April, says the recent Reuters’ poll. The chances of one more rate hike by April are less than 20% now, following the inflation data release.