20 June 2018

Growing trade tensions could make the Bank of Canada postpone the rate increase, says CIBC.

“Lower market-implied odds for July hike reflect worries about the global trade outlook,” – said CIBC strategist Bipan Rai, who still predicts a rate increase in July. “Today, we can talk about a rate increase later in 2018, but it becomes more difficult because of trade uncertainties”.

The odds of a rate hike on July 11 went down from 80% in May 30 to the current 65%.