5 July 2010

•    BMO:  
1.    “If everything remains unchanged at financial markets, we expect a 25 bps (0.25%) rate hike in July. But in the same time recent economic uncertainty is a reason for a pause in September”.
2.    “These rumours about a possible double-dip recession can be smart enough and the market won’t stop worrying till the next autumn”.
3.    According to BMO’s forecast a 50bp (0.50%) hike in prime rate is expected by the year end.

•    CIBC:  
1.    CIBC thinks the BoC will raise the overnight rates “higher by 0.50%-0.75%.  That’s why the Bank will probably wait until US conditions…are healthy enough for such increases”.

•    RBC:  
1.    “We expect the Bank to increase interest rates gradually, because it’s too obvious that there’s no need to keep such ultra-low interest rates to support growth”.

•    TD:
1. “Inspite of the serious economic activity decline in April, we still believe the Canadian   recovery is coming”.

•    Scotia:   
1. Scotia suggests a 75bp (0.75%) hike in prime rate by the year end.

2. “The Canadian economy is so integrated into global trade and capital markets that it’s very   doubtful that we can really outperform other countries”.
3.    Europe and U.S problems “probably won’t provoke another recession”.

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