30 August 2010

It should be noted that it’s only a rough guide – the forecasts can change any moment. 

5-Year Government Bond Yields

Government bond yields influence fixed mortgage rates.

Bank                         2010    2011
BMO                           2.45     3.58
RBC                            2.45     3.50
Scotia                         2.70     3.50
TD                             2.40      3.05   
The Average

till the year end         2.50    3.41
Compared with 

Today                       +0.36   +1.27

Fixed-Rate Mortgage
The major banks expect the 5-year bond yields to climb 127bps (1.27%) during the next 16-month. In this case the 5-year yield will be 3.41% by the end of next year. It means that deep-discounted 5-year fixed rates could rise to 4.61% approximately.

It should be noted that these forecasts are made by the banks and can be changed due to certain factors.  That’s why it’s absolutely necessary to consult your mortgage adviser before making any decisions. 

Overnight Rate 

Variable mortgage rate depends on the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

Bank                        2010     2011
BMO                          1.00        2.50
CIBC                          1.00        2.00
RBC                           1.25        2.75
Scotia                        1.00        2.25
TD                            1.00        2.00   
The Average till

the year end            1.00       2.25
Compared with 

Today                      +0.25    +1.50
(All figures were rounded to 0.25).

Variable-Rate Mortgage

The main economists have changed their forecasts once more. TD, for example, cut its 2011 year-end overnight rate projection by 1%.  It shows how radically the forecasts can change in a few months.
On the whole, the major economists now predict a 150bps (1.5%) increase in the overnight rate during the next 16 months.  If it’s true the prime rate can be 4.25% by the end of 2011. Today it’s only 2.75%.
In this case the 5-year variable rate will be about 3.55%.  It’s even lower than today’s usual discounted 5-year fixed rate.
Speaking about the next rate hike, the situation is unclear. Bond dealers expect 0.25% increase at the next BoC meeting (September 8).
The majority of analysts predict a pause after the next rate hike. BMO believes it can last even for a year.

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