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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
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ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
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20 August 2019

The Bank of Canada may follow the example of Norway, not the U.S.

According to markets observer Kevin Carmichael, today’s situation controlled by the Bank of Canada, may have more in common with Norway than with the U.S.

Carmichael says the growing signs of slowing world stock markets will have different influences on Canada and its northern neighbour, especially with the U.S. facing now trade conflicts with China.

“The BoC may have more in common with the Norges Bank today,” - Carmichael noted. “Both banks manage rich mid-sized economies which rely on commodity prices and external demand more than most developed economies. They both tend to raise rates until factors out of their control change such plans”.

In July, the BoC kept its key lending rate at 1.75% for the sixth time in a row. In September, the Bank may follow Norway’s example, Carmichael says.

“The global risk outlook leads to stronger uncertainty on policy rates in the nearest future,” - the Norway central bank stated during its recent meeting when it decided not to change the rate.

Employment growth in Canada has slowed slightly, while it still remains at a comparatively high level.

“Non-energy exports were down in May, following an April increase. The most recent data shows that companies were planning to invest heavily this summer. Oil prices fell last month, but not significantly”.

These trends show that Canada will need to be very cautious managing the possible risks, which may offset some of the previous gains.

“The central bank had to take a pause last fall, when a sharp decline in oil prices and a severe winter paralyzed trade in North America and almost stalled the national economy. Today, it’s dealing with a weaker demand for exports that could offset a relatively recent business investment recovery.”

 

 

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