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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

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1 August 2019

Canada’s real estate market vulnerability level went down

Following more than 2 years of warnings about the national real estate market, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported the decline of the overall level of vulnerability from high to moderate during the previous six months.

It’s one of the findings released in the CMHC’s new quarterly report, which assesses Canada's largest housing markets and their risk level, using four main factors:

  • Overheating (home sales exceeding new listings sharply).
  • Price acceleration (prices growing fast, which can be caused by speculation).
  • Overvaluation (prices exceeding incomes, which mortgage rates and local rents can justify).
  • Overbuilding (excessive number of vacancy rental units or new unsold buildings).

The CMHC investigates those factors, calculates them and determines the risk level, according to three colours: green means little evidence of an issue, yellow points to certain concerns, and red means a high risk level.

The national market received an overall yellow level, marking the second consecutive quarter with this rating after two and a half years of a red flag. CMHC says there are a few signs of overheating, price acceleration, or overbuilding.

"Modest signals of overvaluation remain the only sign of vulnerability for Canada," - CMHC's chief economist Bob Dugan noted. "We can see the imbalances between real estate prices and housing market fundamentals reducing, as the prices are falling and the number of potential first-time home buyers is growing."

Although the overall situation is quite normal, there are still certain points of concern across Canada.

CMHC gave Regina a red mark for overbuilding, while Victoria, Hamilton and Toronto's markets received the same flag as they all showed yellow levels in every category except that one. "Nevertheless, the conditions for these factors are reporting signs of easing in those markets," - the CMHC added.

In general, the agency believes the housing market looks better, mostly due to declining prices even in spite of growing incomes and population.







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