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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

Email: mortgageadvisor@rogers.com

4 July 2019

Economists don’t expect a rate hike on Wednesday

Although most economists believe the central bank will keep its key lending rate unchanged at 1.75% on Wednesday, some of them don’t rule out the possibility of a cut in the nearest future.

“In case we look at domestic situation only, we may say the Bank of Canada could start thinking about an increase soon”, - noted Capital Economics’ Stephen Brown. “The economic growth is outpacing the BoC’s expectations in the second quarter and core inflation has been growing recently. However, on a global arena, we can see trade tensions strengthening, U.S. GDP growth slowing, and the Fed hinting at rate cuts. We believe the next change will be a decline”.

The real estate market keeps rebounding, and as it’s vital for the national economy, we don’t have many reasons to worry about inside Canada. Nevertheless, there are certain issues outside, including rising trade tensions between the United States and China.

“Canada’s economy has been expanding in line with, or even ahead of, the BoC’s forecasts,” - noted TD Economics’ Brian DePratto. “Major real estate markets are recovering, and economic growth is speeding up in Q2. The external factors are still very uncertain, offsetting the domestic strength and suggesting the current rate direction is right”.

The national economy is strong and growing, even if slowly. The inflation remains within the Bank’s target limits. That’s why Moshe Lander, an economics lecturer at Concordia University, doesn’t think a rate cut is necessary.

“A rate hike is necessary when there’s a strong upward price pressure,” - he said. “There’s also not enough space for a decline, as the rate is already at a very low level. It’s more reasonable to wait for the data which could prove the need for a decline”.

According to Scotiabank’s Brett House, Canada has created more jobs during the first four months of 2019, than during the entire previous year. In his opinion, we’ll see faster growth in the following quarters as conditions in Canada differ from the situation in the United States.

“Canada’s major macroeconomic activity indicators keep recovering after a slight slowdown at the start of the year, and the inflation remains within the BoC’s target limits”, - he added.

Bank of Canada rate announcement is on next Wednesday July 10th and next Sunday, July 14th MortgageLegko.com invites you to the Summer BBQ and interesting presentation for first-time buyers and existing homeowners. Tickets are free with the registration here or on www.mortgagelegko.com.



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