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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

Email: mortgageadvisor@rogers.com


13 May 2019

What to expect from interest rates this year?

Just a year ago, you could ask any big bank economist about the possible future of interest rates and you would hear about the hikes.

At that moment, it was quite reasonable, as the central bank has raised its key lending rate five times since summer 2017 and noted the rates should go up last October.

However, the economy started slowing down, the GDP growth was not so strong already, so economists reviewed their forecasts and most of them now don’t predict increases this year.

According to Statistics Canada, there were 107,000 new jobs created last month. It’s a record high number.

That’s why Derek Holt, vice president of Scotiabank, still expects a rate increase later in 2019.

Just in the first four months of this year, Canada added 220,000 new positions, while it was only 238,000 during the entire last year.

Moreover, about 70% of them were reported in the sector of full-time employment.

The increase was seen in 8 out of 11 major sectors, including construction.

“Scotia Economics’ forecast of more hikes was supported by strong jobs report that is also in line with the outlook for consumption and housing,” - noted Holt.

In Holt’s opinion, the Scotiabank team was left alone when still keeping the hike expectations.  Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics is on the opposite side of this discussion.

Although he admits the improvement of Canada’s economy since the fourth quarter, he predicts rate cuts in the future.

“We can’t be sure that the central bank’s hopes of a strong recovery later this year will come true, so the Bank of Canada may have to cut the rates”, - he said.

The current trade war between US and China may prove Ashworth’s opinion.

Our takeaway from all those rate predictions is very simple - anything could happen and shift economy into different direction, so living by predictions is a very dangerous path. Choose you mortgage rate based on your comfort level and on the professional advice from your mortgage broker or banker.


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