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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

Email: mortgageadvisor@rogers.com


9 May 2019

Canada’s real estate market is expected to rebound this year

According to the governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, the national real estate market may recover later this year.

“We can see the markets of Toronto and Vancouver stabilizing, so the national housing sector should rebound and start growing again later in 2019”, - he noted.

In his opinion, nationally, real estate is supported by fundamentals, including population growth and strong labour market. Meanwhile, the credit costs are historically low.

Market activity in Alberta and Saskatchewan was pushed down by lower oil prices. However, many other areas reported positive signs, especially Halifax, Moncton, Montreal, Ottawa and Winnipeg.

The situation in Toronto and Vancouver wasn’t caused by weak fundamentals. It was the result of policy changes, introduced when the housing sector was overheating.

“In case home prices go up sharply, people usually try to buy faster in order to avoid higher prices or to benefit from the following speculation,” - Poloz added. “As a result, the market becomes even more expensive”.

Nevertheless, when homebuyers’ price expectations adjust in hot markets, the demand may disappear at once, just like in case of Toronto and Vancouver.

“The factor triggering this scenario could be anything: from higher rates and stricter rules to new taxes and growing prices”, - he noted.

It’s been 16 months since the stress test was expanded to uninsured mortgages, and we can see certain markets losing the initial effect of it.

According to BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic, Toronto housing has finally reached its bottom.

Home sales in Toronto (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) were up by 11%, which is the highest activity since the beginning of 2018.

Partially, the gain was caused by cold winter months, which made many buyers postpone their purchases, Kavcic says.

“However, the market is also stabilizing, and interest rates help with the affordability and psychology issues. Meanwhile, broader supply-demand dynamics in the GTA keeps showing the necessary support”, - he added.






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