Canadian real estate market remains vulnerable

The latest report by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) shows that the national housing market is still “vulnerable”, even despite weaker overvaluation in Toronto and Victoria in the third quarter.

According to CMHC, it’s the tenth consecutive quarter Canada’s housing market gets a “vulnerable” rating.

The report results are based on certain factors, such as the level of imbalances in the real estate market related to overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price growth compared with historical averages.

CMHC changed Toronto and Victoria’s overvaluation rating from high to moderate when comparing it to population growth, personal disposable income and interest rates.

At the same time, the degree of overall vulnerability is still high in Hamilton and Vancouver, where the housing market has cooled recently, but home prices are still too high in relation to economic fundamentals.

However, CMHC believes the overall vulnerability rating may go down in the next quarters due to the fact that overheating and overbuilding are quite low in certain markets.

“There are signs of weaker overvaluation pressure in Toronto, as house price growth is moderating, while the fundamentals keep showing a strong growth pace. As a result, the gap between them is decreasing,” - CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan noted.