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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

Email: mortgageadvisor@rogers.com





6 February 2019

TREB predicts moderate improvement of market conditions in 2019

Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Garry Bhaura released the fourth annual market outlook report, following quite a challenging year for the real estate market. TREB expects moderate improvement of sales and average home prices this year.

"While we don’t predict record activity, we still believe it will be a better year for sales and home prices reported by GTA REALTORS® through TREB's MLS® System. Many homebuyers who were pushed out of the market by different rules changes, e.g. the OSFI’s mortgage stress test, have reviewed their positions at the market in terms of the home type, its location and the price range. The poll made by Ipsos for TREB shows that the number of intending buyers went up," - noted Mr. Bhaura.

Here are some of the key points from TREB’s report and Ipsos’ survey:

  • This year, 83,000 sales are expected through TREB's MLS® System. It’s a modest gain from 77,375 sales seen in 2018. The increase will be supported by a higher number of potential buyers, with strong population growth, low unemployment rate and lower average fixed-rate borrowing costs increasing the influence.
  • Stricter market conditions will support a moderate price growth in 2019. The average home price in the GTA will rise to $820,000, getting closer to the 2017 peak and exceeding $787,195 reported in 2018. The condo segment will remain the driver of price growth, while detached home price growth will not exceed the average numbers.
  • Ipsos poll shows that the new mortgage stress test has affected housing affordability negatively. According to TREB, on average, home buyers had to qualify for monthly payments about $700 higher than they can afford.
  • When it comes to the GTA rental market, TREB believes it will remain tight this year: low supply will lead to rent growth by 7%-9% or even higher for one-bedroom and two-bedroom condos through TREB's MLS® System.

"Although there are certain difficulties with the economic growth in 2019, the main drivers will stay active. The GTA population will keep growing, as people come here due to the wide diversity of job opportunities. Unemployment will remain very low, and home buyers will be able to benefit from low fixed rates, compared to the previous year”, - noted Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.

TREB President Garry Bhaura says GTA REALTORS® reported 4,009 home sales through MLS® last month, - it’s 0.6% higher than a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales rose by 3.4% from December.

"We’re glad to see the small annual gain in January sales, especially with the inclement weather we’ve faced recently. It coincides with our forecasts for higher sales this year," - Mr. Bhaura added.

TREB MLS® Sales & Average Price by Home Type January 1 - 31, 2019

Sales

Average Price

416

905

Total

416

905

Total

Detached

342

1,361

1,703

1,174,134

883,027

941,488

Yr./Yr. % Change

-8.6%

7.0%

3.5%

-8.8%

0.9%

-2.8%

Semi-Detached

91

248

339

993,465

650,737

742,738

Yr./Yr. % Change

-3.2%

-6.1%

-5.3%

6.1%

1.8%

3.6%

Townhouse

141

544

685

797,528

600,465

641,028

Yr./Yr. % Change

4.4%

2.1%

2.5%

12.3%

2.1%

4.6%

Condo Apartment

840

398

1,238

591,444

456,857

548,176

Yr./Yr. % Change

-6.3%

6.7%

-2.4%

8.8%

8.2%

7.9%

 

 

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