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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

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4 December 2018

CIBC says rate increases may change their pace due to oil production cuts

On Wednesday, the central bank will announce its next rate decision, and many don’t expect a pre-holiday increase surprise.

But although a pause in hikes is predicted, a switch from the Bank’s previous aggressive tone will be in the centre of attention due to certain conditions changes, reported since October’s rate rise.

According to CIBC Economics, it’s better for the Bank of Canada to step back from its plans to raise the rate to 2.5-3.5%. CIBC has considered this level too aggressive even earlier.

As the oil production is cut in Alberta, the BoC may show a more dovish tone this time, says economist Avery Shenfeld.

In his opinion, the oil production cut will decrease real GDP in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019. However, it’s not the only problem we may face.

“Wage inflation is becoming weaker, and GDP growth has been at zero level during most of the previous two months. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve doesn’t sound so confident anymore that rates will keep rising with the same pace”, - he noted.

At this meeting, the Bank will not provide an updated outlook, but Shenfeld believes we may hear some mention of the downside risks to previous GDP forecasts.

CIBC Economics still expects a two-steps rate increase by 0.5% next year.

 

 

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